Heatwave: Without climate change, the recent heatwave in Europe would have been up to 4°C less intense, according to a study.
Climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels made the recent heatwave in western Europe up to 4°C hotter in many cities, exposing thousands of vulnerable people to dangerous heat stress, according to a "rapid study" published Wednesday, July 9. Between late June and early July, temperatures rose well above 40°C in many European countries in an exceptional and early heatwave.
"We estimate that global warming has amplified the heatwave by about 2 to 4°C in most of the cities" studied, including Paris, London and Madrid, said Ben Clarke of Imperial College London, who led the study with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
The episode likely resulted in a far higher number of heat-related deaths than would have been the case without the influence of global warming, concluded the study, conducted by more than a dozen researchers from five European institutions, pending official results in several weeks.
Based on peer-reviewed scientific methods and established research on heat and mortality, the study estimates that the heatwave likely caused about 2,300 premature deaths between June 23 and July 2 in these cities. And about 1,500 deaths, or about two-thirds, would not have occurred without the additional degrees of heat caused by human climate disruption. The authors, from institutions in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Switzerland, emphasized that this estimate was only a snapshot, ahead of any official tally.
To assess the influence of climate change, the scientists simulated the intensity of this episode in a world without the massive burning of coal, oil, and gas, using historical weather data. They concluded that the heatwave "would have been 2 to 4°C less intense" without climate change in eleven of the twelve cities studied.
"Silent Killers"These additional degrees of heat have significantly increased the health risk for the 30 million residents of the cities studied. "This puts certain groups of people in a more dangerous situation," said researcher Ben Clarke of Imperial College London. "For some, it's still warm and pleasant weather. But for a large part of the population, it's becoming dangerous," he told reporters.
Heat waves are particularly dangerous for the elderly, the sick, young children, outdoor workers, and anyone exposed to high temperatures for long periods without respite, especially during a series of hot nights.
Large swathes of southern Europe have experienced a series of "tropical nights," when temperatures don't drop enough to allow the body to recover. "For thousands of people, an increase of just 2 or 4°C can mean the difference between life and death," said Garyfallos Konstantinoudis of Imperial College London. "That's why heatwaves are known as silent killers: most deaths occur in homes and hospitals, out of sight, and are rarely reported," he said.
The World with AFP
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