Spain's far-right Vox rises in the polls at expense of centre-right

Spain's far-right Vox party has surged in the polls in recent months, hitting a record high and forcing the centre-right Partido Popular (PP) into its worst result since the general election of summer 2023.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Socialists (PSOE) are widely expected, by both pollsters and political wisdom, to lose the next election.

The results therefore raise the real possibility of the PP being forced into a coalition with the far-right, whether formally or informally, when the next election comes. Vox has in recent years stepped up its anti-migrant rhetoric, calling for the deportation of millions of immigrants and banning Islamic events in public spaces at a local level.

PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo has remained coy about possible coalitions with Vox, avoiding commitments but also not ruling anything out, stating only his preference for a "solid and united" government. The two right-wing parties have governed together in several regions of Spain in recent years and the PP has been increasingly dragged rightward by Vox's rhetoric, especially on issues of immigration and crime.

READ ALSO: Spain's Vox mirrors UK far right with protests against migrant centres

The polling, part of the voting barometer by 40dB for El País and Cadena SER, was conducted online by 2,000 people between 29 August and 1 September.

The results put the PP at 30.7 percent of the vote share, down 2.4 points, its lowest since the July 2023 election. Vox grew by more than two percent to an estimated vote of 17.4 percent.

Santiago Abascal's party enjoyed its best result ever, five points higher than in 2023, and it comes largely at the expense of the PP through vote transfer. Previous polling showed that the far-right attracted 13.2 percent of PP voters, a percentage that has now risen to 17.7 percent.

READ ALSO: Will far-right Vox play a role in Spain's next government?

The fall of the PP vote also reduces its lead over the PSOE to 3 percent, half that of the last poll. In fact, the polling suggests that the PSOE support has even grown by 0.7 percent, despite the ongoing corruption allegations and investigations dogging the Sánchez government.

Sumar, the PSOE's junior coalition partner, increased by 0.4 percent to 6.6 overall. Podemos polled at 3.4 percent, and Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF), the party of far-right influencer Alvise Pérez, fell 0.9 points to 1.6 percent.

In Spain's multi-party system, a view of the broader electoral blocs can be more useful. Based on the latest polling, conditions remain very favourable for the Spanish right. The left bloc (which not only includes the PSOE and Sumar but other smaller regional and separatist parties) is beginning to slowly close the gap, but the sum of the estimated right-wing vote share (that is, the PP and Vox together) stands at 48.1 percent.

The left bloc sits at 37.7 percent, 10.4 points behind. This is in contrast to the 2023 general election, when it won 1.5 percent less but Sánchez managed to put together a coalition.

Of the smaller parties that backed Sánchez then, the overall shared vote share of ERC, Junts, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG and Coalición Canaria is at around 6.4 percent, six tenths less than in 2023.

On a regional level, Vox is eating into the PP's recent dominance in Andalusia and Valencia, where Vox has broken the 20 percent barrier and is scoring healthy polling leads over both the PP and PSOE.

The PP polled best in Madrid with 23.7 percent.

Vox is the party preferred by male voters, at 22.3 percent, followed by the PSOE (19.9 percent) and the PP (16.9 percent) while the PSOE has regained its lead among female voters (21.5 percent).

READ ALSO: How people's jobs can determine who they vote for in Spain