Scientists prepare for 'mammothpox' virus that could emerge from arctic permafrost and threaten humanity

International experts have carried out a training scenario guarding against a threat of what they believe could be the source of next pandemic — frozen ancient animals.

Dubbed Exercise Polaris the World Health Organisation (WHO) event pitted experts from 15 countries against a fictional virus called 'Mammothpox'.

The team was tasked with containing the spread of a pathogen that had emerged from the frozen carcass of a mammoth — infecting the scientists and a film crew that had discovered it — before spreading around the world.

While the scenario and the virus were completely fictitious, scientists warn the threat of 'zombie viruses' emerging from permafrost thawing due to climate change is very real.

Experts have found these so-called 'Methuselah microbes' can remain dormant in the soil and the bodies of frozen animals, like mammoths, for tens of thousands of years.

If such a disease emerged from the ice our bodies wouldn't have any natural defences to fight off an infection, much like when the Covid virus first emerged.

The exercise comes mere days after an international team of scientists warned global warming was increasing the opportunities for these frozen microorganisms to make the jump to living animals and people.

Dr Khaled Abass, an expert in environmental health sciences at the University of Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates and co-author of the study, said: 'Climate change is not only melting ice—it's melting the barriers between ecosystems, animals, and people.

'Permafrost thawing could even release ancient bacteria or viruses that have been frozen for thousands of years.'

The WHO documents provided as part of Exercise Polaris also lay out the potential risks of such an event occurring.

'Scientific research has demonstrated that ancient viruses can remain viable in permafrost for thousands of years,' The Telegraph reported.

'The thawing of permafrost due to climate change has raised concerns about the potential release of pathogens previously unknown to modern medicine.'

In Exercise Polaris, Mammothpox was a deadly pathogen closely related to the now extinct smallpox and the currently spreading monkeypox, also called mpox, with a mortality rate between the two viruses.

Smallpox is estimated to have killed about one in three people it infected, killing about half a billion people in the century before it was eradicated in 1980 as part of a global vaccine drive.

Mpox has a much lower fatality rate but can still be deadly. A new strain, spreading mainly in Africa, is particularly dangerous to children, killing up to one in 10 of those infected.

The Mammothpox scenario was designed to be controllable provided countries worked together to contain the spread.

Among the participating nations were representatives from Denmark, Somalia, Qatar, Germany, Saudi Arabia, and Ukraine.

Each country was intentionally only given part of the puzzle, with their respective Mammothpox outbreaks differing slightly to see how well they shared information.

For example, one group was told one of the infected Arctic researchers was on a cruise ship, which gave them a quarantined environment they could use to see how fast the virus could spread.

Other countries were given scenarios such as an outbreak at a large gathering or within a single household.

While held over two days, the exercise was designed to mimic three weeks of a hypothetical outbreak.

On the second day, participants were told that progress in containing the virus was being hampered by politics and divergent strategies between states.

They then had to adapt to some countries going into international lockdown, banning all arrivals, while other maintained open borders but relied on measures like contact tracing.

Eventually, the team did manage to bring the Mammothpox outbreak under control.

But the WHO has acknowledged a real-life outbreak is likely to be much more complicated in terms of international cooperation.

For example, countries like the US, under President Donald Trump, and Argentina announced their departure from the global health body earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the threat of frozen pathogens infecting humans is increasing.

As the ice recedes teams of scientists are hunting for frozen extinct animals, as are ivory hunters looking to make a fortune on mammoth tusks.

For over a decade, scientists have known that bacteria and viruses frozen in the Arctic could still have the potential to infect living organisms.

In 2014, scientists isolated viruses from the Siberian permafrost and showed they could still infect living cells, despite being frozen for thousands of years.

Similarly, in 2023, scientists successfully revived an amoeba virus that had been frozen for 48,500 years.

Scientists estimate that four sextillion — that's four followed by 21 zeros — cells escape permafrost every year at current rates.

While researchers estimate that only one in 100 ancient pathogens could disrupt the ecosystem, the sheer volume escaping from the ice makes a dangerous incident more likely.

And there have already been some incidents that demonstrate the potential risks.

In 2016, anthrax spores escaped from an animal carcass that had been frozen in the Siberian permafrost for 75 years, leaving dozens hospitalised and one child dead.