In France, the number of deaths is likely to exceed that of births in 2025, a first since 1944

This would be a first since the end of the Second World War. The number of deaths could exceed the number of births in France in 2025, the INSEE told Agence France-Presse (AFP) on Thursday, July 24, which would be a first since 1944. In 2025, a negative natural population balance "is within the realm of possibility," the National Institute of Statistics estimated, while specifying that it did not make "precise forecasts."

Over a rolling twelve-month period, the natural balance had already become negative at the end of May, as revealed by OFCE economist François Geerolf, quoted by the press. France recorded some 651,000 deaths compared to some 650,000 births. "This is a first," Chloé Tavan, head of the demographic surveys and studies division at INSEE, told AFP.

This phenomenon was expected by demographers, but "it is happening sooner than expected," she added. The shift was expected to occur in 2035, INSEE estimated in a study at the end of 2021. The main variation compared to the anticipated scenario: the number of births is lower. Between January and May, they fell by 3.7% compared to the same period last year. A trend that has already been observed for several years.

It is mainly explained by the decline in fertility, that is, the number of children per woman, linked to various factors (difficulties in accessing stable employment, changing aspirations, concerns about the future of the planet, etc.).

At the same time, the number of deaths increased by 3.5% in the first five months of the year. This phenomenon, expected by demographers, is occurring due to the arrival of the large baby boom generations at ages of high mortality.

The declining birth rate raises concerns about the financing of the French social security system, which is based primarily on contributions from working people. "This demographic upheaval is major, and it is our duty to preserve our social model," Solidarity Minister Catherine Vautrin commented Thursday on X.

The government says it wants to support the birth rate, particularly by combating infertility and modernizing parental leave. It is notably considering a new "birth leave," which could be taken by the mother and then the father of the baby, with greater financial support than the current parental leave, which is paid 456 euros per month.